Monday, September 14, 2009
-Madelaine B. Miraflor
‘Noynoy’ tops SWS survey
One in 2 voters would pick Aquinos’ son for president
IF elections were held early September 2009, Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino 3rd would be the top vote-getter, with one out of every two voters choosing him over the rest of the presidential aspirants.
According to a Special Survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) that was posted on the ABS-CBN News website on Sunday, Noynoy enjoyed an edge in vote-rich areas of Luzon, the country’s biggest group of islands.
The results of the survey showed that Noynoy obtained a 50-percent response from the 1,200 respondents from a preselected list of five names that also included erstwhile survey leaders Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr., former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada, Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero and Vice President Noli de Castro.
Statistically tied were Villar (14 percent), Estrada (13 percent) and Escudero (12 percent). De Castro was preferred by 7 percent of respondents.
The Special Survey was commissioned by a number of private individuals including some members of the business community.
A source from the Estrada camp told The Manila Times also on Sunday that they doubted if such rating would last until next year when scheduled presidential elections are held.
“[Sen. Aquino] may be high in the ratings now but as to sustaining it will be a major question,” the source said.
“The situation is that the survey was taken when Noynoy was very much in the news about him running or not in the elections. Naturally, his name will be recalled quickly, but come elections, it is a matter of platforms, not the spur-of-the-moment [recall],” the source added.
According to the ABS-CBN website, the survey was conducted September 5 to 6 in the National Capital Region (NCR, Metro Manila), Pangasinan province, Region 3 (Central Luzon) and Region 4-A (portions of Southern Tagalog).
Before the survey was conducted, presidential aspirant Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd had withdrawn from the race to Malacañang in the 2010 elections in favor of Noynoy, his Liberal Party colleague, and just days before Noynoy announced he would run for the presidency. Roxas backed out on September 1 while Noynoy announced his bid on September 9.
The survey had a margin of error of plus/minus 3 percent.
Although not a nationwide survey, the results were seen to give a good gauge of the competitiveness of the only son of late former President Corazon”Cory” Aquino and late former Sen. Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. vis-a-vis the early birds in the presidential race.
Political tacticians refer to the vote-rich corridor from Lingayen City in Pangasinan province to Lucena City in Quezon province as a good indicator of a candidate’s chances. These are mainly urban areas where television and radio play a big role in influencing the choices of voters.
The Special Survey also asked the respondents to choose their preferences from different lists of names.
From a list of four names—Aquino, Villar, Estrada and de Castro—meaning without Escu-dero, Noynoy got an even higher voter preference in the vote-rich areas of Luzon: Aquino, 55 percent; Villar, 17 percent; Estrada, 15 percent; de Castro, 8 percent; None, 2 percent; and Don’t know, 1 percent.
From a list of only three names—Aquino, Villar, de Castro—or without Escudero and Estrada, the results were: Aquino, 63 percent; Villar, 21 percent; de Castro, 9 percent; Estrada, 2 percent (volunteered Estrada’s name even if it was not on the list); Don’t know, 1 percent; and None, 3 percent.
Noynoy supposedly also topped an unreleased survey conducted last week by a known polling group.
The survey was lambasted by the ruling party Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) also on Sunday.
During the weekly Balitaan sa Tinapayan news forum, the party’s deputy secretary-general, Reggie Velasco, said that surveys are not the sole bases for winning in the 2010 balloting.
He announced that Lakas-Kampi CMD would have chosen its standard-bearer by Wednesday.
Supposedly being considered to banner the administration party are de Castro, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and Chairman Bayani Fernando of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority.
--Madelaine B. Miraflor
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